The Prize
What is the future holding for the great nation of India?
Why so much competition to win the heart and mind of India by various internal
political dispensations and external nations? What prize India holds in near
future?
Since independence India has been consistently the ~10th
largest (nominal) economy in the world. The efficiency/inefficiency of various
governments pushed this position up or down by one or two positions but India
on the whole maintained the pace.
But the winds are changing now and India is at the cusp of a whole new world
where it is at qualitative advantage to propel into the distinguished group of
world powers. Let’s see what they are.
Look at the information presented below graphics to get the
details. Following are the key trends:
·
Economy
At market exchange rates, India will achieve a per-capita
income of $5000 by 2020 (mid-level economy) and propel to an advanced economy
by 2040. In 2050, an average Indian will have higher per-capita income than a
EU citizen or Saudi Citizen.
Indian economy will be bigger than EU economy by 2030
and by 2050 it will be more than 5 times that of EU economy
Indian economy will be 5 times that of Saudi Arabia economy
by 2020. An average Indian, with all its 1.4 billion population, will be richer
than a Saudi Arabian citizen by 2040.
·
Human
Development Index (HDI)
Between 1975 and 2003 India has moved from a HDI score
of 0.4 to 0.6 with 1.0 being the highest possible Human Development Index.
India achieved this great feat while keeping the average per-capita Biocapacity
consumed constant. In comparison China moved from a HDI of 0.5 to 0.75 but at
the cost of double the bio-capacity, that is consuming nearly double the
natural resources to achieve same amount of HDI improvement.
Continuing at this pace India can achieve a HDI of 0.8+
by 2025, thus making the quality of life of Indians at par with today’s western
societies. If India can achieve this while maintaining its Biocapacity score
that means Indian HDI is not only world-class but also sustainable. On the
other hand as other nations push to improve their HDI at the cost of
biocapacity then the western societies will be pressurized to control their
biocapacity usage which may result in reduced HDIs in those societies.
·
Demographics
For the first time since Independence India achieved
a favorable dependency ratio, number of dependents per working person, around 2005.
In comparison China achieved this favorable demographic as early as 1980s,
which helped that nation to propel ahead.
Interestingly China’s dependency
ratio optimized around 2010 and is trending –ve to reach unfavorable ratios by
2040. On the other hand India will continue to improve this ratio well in to
2030s and continue this favorable conditions much beyond 2050.
On the other hand all most all western nations will have
an unfavorable dependency ratio during the same period making them face higher
social costs and unfavorable national power equations.
·
National
Power
The traditional national power measure is a function
of a nation’s population, economy (GDP), military budget and Technology. With improved
HDI and economic indicators combined with demographic dividend India is poised
to grow its national power significantly in the upcoming decades. Studies show
that India will cross European Union by 2030s and USA by 2050.
***
This brings us back to our key question - Why so much
competition to win the heart and mind of India by various internal political
dispensations and external nations?
The bright future opportunities described above holds a very
valuable prize for the leadership dispensation of this nation. Whoever oversees
this great transformation of India will not only define India’s future for next
century but also for the world.
If this transformation is controlled &
managed by Western handlers then we can be sure that the once great Hindu
civilization, that withstood centuries of Abrahamic onslaught, will permanently
lose its unique identity and will melt into Western Universalism.
On the other
hand if by fate Hindu civilization can own this transformation then it can instead
bring back the glorious epoch of Bharat when India was 30% of world GDP and Jagat
Guru (teacher of the world) and lead the humanity towards Vasudhaika Kutumbam!
How does this great prize holds for the next administration?
Depending on what political dispensation at the helm, during
2014 and 2019, India is expected to grow at a steady pace of 7-8%.
- This translates into anywhere between $190B to $279B annual tax revenues to the next government at a very conservative 10% tax revenues as percentage of GDP.
- Over next 5 years India will spend >$120B towards capital investments in Military.
- India will have national savings in excess of $4T over next five years.
- Based on how much of these savings are tapped for Industry and Infrastructure, India can add at least $1T to its capital markets doubling its size in just 5 years without taking market growth into consideration. In addition that India can self-finance its infrastructure vision of investing $1T in next five years.
All this means the next political dispensation can decide
how $1T capital is spent every year from 2014-2019. This itself creates immense
political, economic and social clout for this political dispensation within
India.
That is the prize of
2014 elections!