Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Pakistan after Taliban takeover - A prediction

From its inception, Pakistan society has been very clear on what it wanted to be and it has been so all along. It is the UK and USA that put a secular/democratic disguise on Pakistan to avoid international criticism for supporting such a fanatic state.

Anyways, Pakistan finally found a way to continue its journey towards its fate. The current internal and external players of Pakistan game are

1. US - Wants to use Pakistan against India (and potentially Russia). Also can use Pakistan, when the shit hits the fan against the Arabian Muslim nation states.
2. China - Wants to use this against India. Also as a transit route to ME
3. UK - Uses this as a reason to advise and meddle in USA’s geopolitical affairs.
4. India - Wants to avoid this problem altogether if it can. Since it doesn’t have the will to solve this problem itself, India will continue to face interesting challenges (like they are doing now with self-inflicted saffron terror)
5. Afghanistan - Wishes to get away from its orbit
6. KSA - A potential cheap supply of Islamic slaves

1. Rabid Anglicized Pakistani Elites (RAPE) - Wants to keep their secular life styles while enjoying Islamic benefits
2. Terrorist State of Pakistani Army (TSPA) - Want to keep their secular disguise for access to western weapon systems because they know Islam alone cannot win modern wars in military domain (they have less control/understanding on other social aspects of statehood)
3. Average Pakistani (mango-Abduls) - Busy with their lives, but firmly believe Islam is the solution because Islam provides divine approval for their Asuric consciousness.
4. Taliban - The self-designated army of Allah. These are the leaders who want to rule Pakistan (and the world) on behalf of Allah.

Assuming Pakistan gets overruled by Taliban -

Response of Internal Players

  • RAPEs – Few RAPEs will be prosecuted and publicly beheaded. Majority of the RAPEs will run away to US, UK or Dubai as per their personal and business connections. The number of RAPEs emigrated will be limited to <1 million (including families, children etc). These people will still keep Islam in their sleeves while enjoying protection from their host societies. There is a high possibility that they will start behaving like our WKKs in taming world’s response against Talibani state of Pakistan.
  • TSPA – Except for few senior/mid-level officers, who migrate outside due to their better economic connections there, all of TSPA will accept Taliban rule and become part of their militia. Even then, there is a high possibility that this militia will be managed in a feudalistic structure.
  • Mango-Abduls –
a.       Sunnis – They will whole heartedly accept Taliban rule and Sharia
b.      Shias – Will accept Taliban rule and Sharia. If Iraq and other ME societies are any indication, there will not be any systematic persecution at the beginning. But as and when this happens, majority of them will knock at India’s doors instead of Irans.
c.       Others – Will accept Taliban and Sharia whole heartedly, but will get persecuted in a slow trickle.
d.      Cricket stadiums will be converted into weekly Sharia courts and will feed the asuric social needs for entertainment.

International challenges after Taliban take- over

Nuclear Weapons
o   USA & West will try to buy Paki nukes & Taliban might accept that deal. Assuming ~100 weapons, we can expect a $30-40 billion multi-year deal made with Taliban.
o   TSPA/Taliban will act more than smart and will keep a handful number of nukes hidden away. My gut feeling is that, they will limit it to 2-3 weapons.
o   There is a very high possibility that India will share majority of this financial burden. Western consultants will (even I can) come up with enough reasons why it is in India’s best interests to make this deal happen and India will agree
§  This will be sold as a chanikyan move by seculars, media and WKKs as a way to get some influence over Taliban/Paki behavior.
§  There is a possibility that India will be pressurized to get rid of its own nukes as a good will gesture. I have a strong feeling that India will not budge even under immense internal and external pressure. India already made its case that Indian nukes are against China threat.
o   China will try to cover its traces amidst this chaos. It will end up paying the west to avoid international embarrassment. It may also make a deal with TSPA/Taliban to keep some of the weapons in its control (against submitting them to the west) and Taliban will accept this deal, because they already have a couple kept away for emergency.

     Economic & Humanitarian help
o   Government tax revenues will be limited. So they will have to develop a less demanding economic model and Islamic mode of living can sustain this.  That doesn’t mean Taliban will be poor. They will get ample money from their nukes (explained below)
o   The west will continue to fund some humanitarian aid, which will take care of basic food problem, to a major extent. We will not see a major humanitarian crisis like in Africa just because the numbers are too high (>150 million) and mainly Indian WKKs (with enough western prompting) will not allow it. So India (for obvious reasons – who wants another 10 million immigrants?) might end-up feeding (directly or indirectly) most of Pakistanis.

Military Industrial Complex
o   The military industry will become similar to Iran situation. Will be able to produce heavy equipment but will not be technically advance.
o   There is a fair chance that some sections of TSPA will start black-water like security companies and sell their services to key GCC nations.

Response of External Players

o   In 10-20 years, Xinjiang will start showing the early signs of unrest.  China will try to suppress this in its natural way.  UK/USA will use this opportunity to hurt China & then we will start seeing a China nuke-flash point.

o   J&K – If India moves smartly, there is a fair chance of regaining PoK. But will need to ensure that it is there for long haul (20-30 years). Initially China may oppose this, as its negotiations in nuke realm continue. Another factor that can influence China is how much importance and confidence it has on the possibility of transit route to ME. There is a very high chance that India will not be successful in this effort.

o   Indian Muslims – There is a fair chance that their faith in Talibani invincibility will increase. They may not make any overt move themselves, but there is a fair chance that we will see more political and material support to JK insurgency. Taliban movement (not Pakis) will sneak into India.

o   WKKs – They will use Taliban scare to maximize their position over dhimmi secular Hindu majority. This will succeed in the short term (10-15 years). There is a fair chance that it will lead to further raise in Congress System fortunes.

o   There is another parallel development that is very important to this scenario. Supreme court decision on extending caste based reservations to converted Dalits. If that happens, the face of Indian electorate will change dramatically. Right now we have IMs – 15%, Christians 10%, Hindus – 75%. After this decision it will be IMs – 15%, Christians 40%, Hindus 45%. This will heavily influence Indian response to Talibanized Pakistan in many realms. If this doesn’t happen, Talibanization of Pakistan will be in Indian interests as I wrote in 2010.

o   West will go unscarred from this development. It will absorb few tens of thousands of RAPEs who come with their bank accounts and political connections back home, which will come to use in future.
o   RAPEs will be made into a Pakistani equivalent of Hurriyat/Khalistanis for future  use.