Friday, February 13, 2015

Learning RIGHT lessons from Delhi results

First of all, my heartfelt congratulations to Sri Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Admi Party for winning an unprecedented mandate in Delhi! I truly hope they will deliver a corruption-free, stable and progressive government to people of Delhi.

Many have analyzed this election in detail to understand how AAP was able to get this stupendous mandate and most importantly how all the pundits missed this tsunami. Here is my analysis.

I will start with 2013 Delhi State Elections.

The background of this election was (1) public anger against corrupt Congress government (2) a highly successful movement by Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev’s India Against Corruption (IAC) and Congress government’s high-handed response to it. At that time Narendra Modi was far away as CM of Gujarat who stayed away from these elections.

It was obvious that Delhi voters were going to punish Sheila Dikshit’s Congress government and they had two choices in the form of BJP and AAP. In those elections BJP secured 33% votes, AAP got 29.5% votes and Congress 24.6% votes. Together these three parties got 87% of votes. At this point of time AAP’s core vote base had two components. The Leftists+NGO groups and the Hindu vote base that was genuinely smitten by Anna Hazare, Aravind Kejriwal and the youthfulness of Aam Admi Party. I would put this Hindu voter base at 14% of AAP’s voters.

It resulted in a Hung Assembly and subsequent resignation of Arvind Kejriwal as CM of Delhi.

Then came 2014 General Elections.

The background of this election was Modi’s call for a “Congress Mukth Bharat” and a decisive mandate for his “Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas” agenda. In these elections Modi entered Delhi seeking votes while Arvind Kejriwal left to Varanasi to fight Modi for Lok Sabha. Another fact is that majority of AAP Delhi leadership also moved out of Delhi to contest/campaign Lok Sabha elections.

So the 14% Hindu voters who voted for AAP in 2013 Delhi elections went to BJP for they preferred Modi than Arvind Kejriwal. This increased BJP vote share to 46% in Delhi. On the other hand AAP got its vote share supplemented by two vote banks. First one is the Muslim vote bank. Muslims are well known to strategically vote as a block to any candidate who has a chance to defeat BJP candidate. In 2014 elections it became obvious that Modi is riding a wave and the Muslim vote bank in Delhi realized that Congress has little chance of winning. So they chose their next best option based on 2013 election results, hence went with AAP. Congress lost 9.5% of its votes in 2014 elections compared to 2013 Delhi elections. In 2014, these three parties together got 94% of votes, 7% more votes than 2013 elections.

That brings us to 2015 Delhi State Elections.

The electoral  landscape of Delhi changed again for these elections. Modi is acting Prime Minister of India and Arvind Kejriwal came back to Delhi as CM candidate. As observed in 2013 elections the 14% Hindu voters prefer Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP to a non-Modi led BJP, so they went back to AAP. Given the utter defeat of Congress in 2014 general elections, the Muslim vote back stayed with AAP for they have the best chances to defeat BJP candidates. We can see Asaduddin Owaisi MIM’s efforts from this perspective. Congress party on the other hand continued to lose its core vote back and transferred another 7% votes to AAP. I think this is the Christian vote bank, given the Church-vandalism incidents and Obama’s comments to that extent. Congress is left with hardly 8% votes in these elections. Together these three parties secured 93% of votes in these elections indicating the overall electoral space of Delhi did not change between 2014 and 2015 elections.

Wrong lessons for BJP

The media and secular intelligentsia is trying to portray AAP’s victory over BJP as a failure of Modi and is a warning by the nation to him vis.a.vis Hindutva. They are trying to impose the lessons they want on Modi Sarkar because they know that Narendra Modi is steering the nation towards an independent Bharat, free from colonial hangover. Some of these wrong lessons making rounds in TV studios and Social Media are

·         Curtail Hindu resurgence and stop reminding the nation of its Hindu identity.
·         Stop reconversions into Hinduism while ignoring/facilitating Christian Evangelical organizations.
·         Go slow on Islamic Terror and make peace with Pakistan

All these are wrong lessons for Modi Sarkar and the nation, for these are mere continuation of colonial rule of India. If BJP goes this path it will lose its differentiation and becomes Congress party without Gandhi/Nehru family.

It is important for BJP to learn right lessons from these elections because it is not only in the interests of BJP the political party but in the larger interests of the whole nation, especially 900 million Hindus who are suffering from the triple colonization of India by Islam, Christianity and Secularism.

Learning RIGHT lessons

  • Modi Sarkar is on right path and must continue with its plan to remove colonial hangover in policy, law and justice, police, planning and economic agenda.
  • Modi Sarkar must perform better than AAP especially in areas like fight against corruption, good governance and inclusive development. Not just that, it must be able to pass the message as well as benefits to the common man. When this becomes visible on the ground, the floating Hindu vote base (14% which is with AAP now) will come back to BJP. If Modi were to be the candidate of BJP, it would have gotten 46% vote share compared to AAP’s 39% (53-14%).
  • BJP must reorganize itself to become a youthful party. This need not mean it will have to get rid of all these party workers who are 40+ years old. It will have to push the youth leaders into public and legislative arena while the seniors contribute in party and policy roles/matters.
  • BJP must plan to get majority vote (51%) moving forward. Now that Congress is decimated, all anti-Hindu vote banks will unite to fight BJP. There will be attempts to splinter Hindu votes on caste/creed lines but all non-Hindu votes will be focused to defeat BJP candidates.

A Telugu patriotic poet Gurajada Apparao said thus “DEsamantE Matti KAdOy, DEsamantE ManushulOy” which means “It is the people who make the nation, not the soil/land”. So the people must be made to feel proud of their Hindu identity before this nation becomes a Hindu nation again. This pride comes only when there are ample real-life examples of successful Indians who live and assert their Hinduness. 

When Modi Sarkar gets rid of corruption, poverty, filth, unemployment without compromising on its core values; Hindutva will become cool for hundreds of millions of (now) secularized Hindus. THAT will be the day India achieves true independence.


Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Playing Obama's game

He came, he hugged, he saw, he said and he left!

Modi's government left no stone unturned to make this unprecedented visit by Barack Obama a grand success. Protocols were set aside (Obama in his Ghost on Rajpath), legal hurdles (nuclear deal) smoothened and strategic-relationship turned into personal friendship. All this ended with Obama's unsolicited advice on India's unity and religious tolerance or lack thereof.

Social media went crazy over Obama's lack of Atidhi-Maryada (guest's  etiquette). World-media ensured that intolerant nature of Hindu majority is well understood by colonial west and dictatorial middle eastern kingdoms. Indian intellectuals subtly advised Modi govt to get rid of RSS and those assertive saffron BJP MPs, if he were to become the darling of leftist, Islamist and evangelical power-network. Some Indian media divas like Shekhar Gupta went to the extent of attributing BJP's rout in Delhi city-state elections to this issue alone.

Why this message and why now?

To get a complete picture of the value proposition of India to the world, please read my earlier blog-post The Prize – That is India. As many studies (every notable strategic/economic/consulting firm has a study on this) indicate India is poised to spend at least $1 trillion on infrastructure development over next decade, in addition to more than $100B on defense acquisitions. On top of this, if Modi’s call of “Make in India” were to succeed, India will need another $2 trillion to train and employ 150+million labor force that currently employed in Agricultural sector [see table below]. This is the rationale behind Modi’s FDI (Foreign Direct Investment to First Develop India) slogan. These numbers may sound astounding to some but over 10 years all these investments amount to hardly 10% of India’s GDP.

Modi, as soon as his election as Prime Minister of India, went on a world-wide tour seeking investments and transfer of technology selling India’s growth story.

Modi had to politely set aside China’s offer of up to $100B investments for this offer came with caveats that require India compromising on its territorial integrity, national security and absorbing Chinese manufactured products undermining the ‘Make In India’ initiative.

Russia’s Putin visited India in December 2014 and signed 20 bilateral agreements estimated at $100B over next decade or so.

Japan, Australia, Singapore and EU wanted to partner with Modi’s “Make In India” vision for they see Indian economy as a stable and profitable opportunity for their aging economies and inefficient pension funds. But all these nations needed their big brother, USA’s, approval before they can make any financial or technology commitments. 

If Modi’s meeting with Obama in USA set the stage for strategic alignment of India with USA, then Obama’s India visit was supposed to be the culmination of that partnership.

This is why Modi's government left no stone unturned to make this unprecedented visit by Barack Obama a grand success. But there is one important thing that USA (and Europe) needed from Modi’s India before they can trust India and start investments; Modi's compromise on the civilizational identity of India. To understand this equation, please read my blog-post The Fight – 2014 Elections.

The essence of that article is simple. A resurgent Hindu Bharat is a civilizational threat to Abrahamic USA and Europe. USA and Europe (along with their Asian partners) cannot and will not invest in and empower India unless it severs its ties with Bharat, the civilizational India.

This is why decades old #Gharwapasi is brought into media glare, few cases of Church arson were presented as harassment of religious minorities in India (forgotten are the continuous attacks of Christian missionaries on Hindu temples and culture) culminating in Obama’s unsolicited advice on religious tolerance as precondition for India’s territorial integrity. The secular Media started spinning the electoral victory of Aam Admi Party (which got more votes from those very Hindus who overwhelmingly voted for Modi just 9 months ago than all the minorities in Delhi combined) as a warning shot to Modi to denounce his Hindutva identity and politics.

Is Bharat worth it?

The next logical question is “Is Bharat Worth It?”. Do we need to protect Bharat at the cost of leaving India poor, weak and unworthy?

Let’s look at the alternatives first!

Should India convert amass into Islam and evolve into world’s largest Islamic nation? Will this make Pakistan and Bangladesh redundant and lead to unification of Indian sub-continent. Then why did Bangladesh separate from Pakistan to begin with? Did Pakistan/Bangladesh’s Islamic identity lead to wealth, strength and international stature that India is seeking? The reality is right in-front of us staring into our eyes thru the mirror of Islamic State!

Or should India convert amass into Christianity and evolve into world’s largest Christian nation? Will this alone turn India into a wealthy, strong and world-power? What happened to all those African nations which converted into Christianity? Why are they still reeling in filth, poverty and sickness?

What do we do now? Perhaps our ancestors realized this question a long time ago. How else can we fathom the untold sufferings of hundred+ generations of our ancestors who fought and withstood the double colonization of Bharat by Islam and Christianity just to save our Bharatiya identity? 

Studies indicate that India pulled more than 200 million Indians out of poverty in the past 20 years (since 1991). That means we can get the remaining 350m poor out of poverty and can grow wealthy, strong and powerful on our own in next 20-30 years. What glory there is on earth than we becoming rich, healthy and powerful in our own identity?

Does it mean we have to make enemies out of the Obama’s of this world and get into a prolonged friction with western society?

Not necessarily. There is a Bharatiya way out of this conundrum. It is …

Playing Obama’s Game

Before we play this game, we need to understand the game. Please read my blogpost USA – A Vedic Civilization on Abrahamic Foundations to understand the rules of the game. In the USA, the state enforces the rules of the game while Christianity remains the foundation of that society. Similarly India too can realign itself in such a way that Govt of India enforces the rules of the game while Hinduism remains the foundation of our society.

How would such a game play out?

Modi welcomes Obama’s comments while subtly reminding the world about India’s painful past under Islamic and Christian colonizations. Then Modi changes India’s laws & governance structures to closely reflect the systems of USA/West.
·      Define Ashrama-Vyavastha as it is how in the USA and enforce it by rule of law.
·      Define Varna-Vyavastha as it is how in the USA and enforce it by rule of law.
·      Equip the justice system to process cases within reasonable timeline.
·      Thoroughly desensitize Law and Order apparatus of religious sensitivities and prosecute Church/Temple/Mosque attacks as per the law. Give multi-life sentences to the culprits.
·      Redefine Educational and National Policy institutions based on Hindu foundations of India. Shun out Leftist intellectuals from educational and national policy institutions following the footsteps of Joseph McCarthy.
·      Ban foreign funded NGOs on national security grounds. Or at least tax them at the highest rate possible.
·      Ban public and religious slaughter of animals on health and civic sense grounds. Establish and enforce strict animal rights laws.
·      Release Hindu temples out of government control and a put all these properties under a private national fund for Hindu temples & organizations. Most conservative estimates put the value of these properties at $100B. Pay this Hindu fund $5B/Year as reparations for next 10 years. Allow Hindus to run private religious educational and medical institutions.
·      Enforce absolute freedom of speech. Allow Indian media to run various investigative and historical shows on Abrahamic faiths like The Borgias, The Tudors, Secrets of Vatican etc.,
·      Enforce absolute freedom of propagation of faith. Allow Hindu #Gharwapasi while allowing Christian/Muslim conversions (minus foreign funds).
·      Build huge museums for Islamic genocide of Hindus and Christian genocide of Hindus and dedicate them to the world.

In doing the above, Modi should be able find favorable support base both within and without India for they are congruent with American laws. Modi and his media team should present each of these measures comparing them with corresponding US laws so there is little confusion within and without. Simply put "Bharat is Hindu America!"

Once this debate is resolved, the Obamas of West will have nothing to complain about Bharat’s pluralism for the state is thoroughly separated from religion and is governed by nothing but rule of law and pursuit of liberty and (individual as well as national) happiness. 

Table: Cost of India's transformation from Agricultural economy to Industrial economy: