Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Modi's speech at Madison Square Garden!

1.            Modi made a case for India to be the leader of 21st century, not China. For this he put 3-D value proposition (Democracy, Demography (young nation) and Demand). This is a direct hint to American businessmen. This week’s Hong Kong demonstrations proved that China’s democracy is weak; China is getting old (by 2030 – another 15yrs, china will start getting old) and China’s weak internal consumption (its economy is export economy and not consumer economy like India).

2.            Modi is hinting American industries to invest in and work with Indians. He made few points to this effect – Asking Indians to return (this will weaken American companies that depend upon India), Hinting that India will need 2kinds of FDIs (Foreign Direct Investment must First Develop India) and also visa on arrival for Americans. He is kind of saying imagine you have New York and San Francisco offices then add Madurai office also. You can travel to these offices within the day because I am developing smarts cities etc., Imagine what happens if 50% of skilled NRIs return. These will be 1 million (10 Lakhs) high tech jobs which make >$100K (Rs 60 Lakhs) per yr. You are looking at $100Billion (6 Lakh Crores) revenues to India every year.

3.            The key industries Modi is trying to pitch to America are – Tourism (Yoga/Hindu places – there are ~20 million Yoga practitioners in USA – imagine they visit India every year/two yrs. It will be $20+ Billion/120,000 crore tourism industry), Technology and Education. He knows that the biggest problems in realizing this potential is (1) Visa/Governance– Hence Visa on Arrival (2) Cleanliness – Lack of public involvement in cleanliness, hence Swaccha Bharat plan (3) Skilled Human Resources - Hence Education/Skill Development programs (4) Cultural Heritage – Hence “Har Har Gange” Plan (for Yogis) (5) Civic Amenities – Hence Smart cities and so on..

It’s all about bringing the Indian-American (scientist-professional-business) collaboration that worked very well in USA to India. He is going to develop India as Bharat; not some Philippines or South Korea or Malaysia (notice his mention of them developing as someone else).

Saturday, August 16, 2014

USA: A Vedic Civilization on Abrahamic Foundations?

US is like a Vedic civilization with Abrahamic foundations. For a moment let's forget how it came to existence & call it a Pralaya for Natives.

What I see is following patterns (again at a large scale) with exceptions...

1. Varna Vyavastha
The intellectual class (whoever opts it) are given all state support needed in their pursuit of knowledge (research funds, labs and what not) but are kept barely above BPL in terms of personal wealth.

The Kshatriya class has strong hold on enforcing this entire Varna-Vyavastha. It also has unquestioned say in the national resources

The Vaisya class is allowed to accumulate wealth and as a tool to extend US interests. But even this so powerful Vaisya class is allowed to be free only as long as the profits flow back home. This class is ruthlessly curtailed if/when they try to build a center outside of core US.

The Sudra class is kept in an extremely well orchestrated bliss of materialistic pleasures. 

2. Individual freedoms - as long as the individual is moving in the prescribed order of Varna/Ashrama Vyavastha the individual is given lot of freedoms be it in terms of right to bear arms, or sex or pursuit of & access to materialistic excesses.

3. Ashrama Vyavastha - the Balya avastha was enforced by forced schooling upto highschool (?). The Brahmacharya (higher education in this society) is made in such a way that by the time an individual comes out of it, he has enough debts (assuming no parental support) that he will remain in debts for rest of life. The whol Grihastha Ashrama is about working for retirement & paying debts of Brahmacharya. The retirement is more of a solitary contemplation in retirement homes with little association with family & society.

4. Environment/animal rights - even here the environment & animal rights are sustained and supported only as long as they do not come in the way of their Abrahamic foundations. Hurting a dog is animal rights but slaughtering of billions of cattle, turkey's etc for food is completely ok. A time magazine report a few months ago reported that all native species have seen a remarkable turnaround and are now in more numbers than they ever were in 200 yrs.

For an Indian (or any immigrant for that matter) the Abrahamic foundations are not visible and are kept away from the highways and malls that the immigrants visit. So the immigrant only sees the Vedic structures and fall for the underlying Abrahamic traps

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Geopolitics V2.0

Every empire must end. But the sun setting empire can, and often does, select who will be its successor. We could see this throughout the history.

It is said that Britain identified USA as its successor empire after WW1 and passed on the baton to USA after WW2. Eventhough USA was once a British colony and fought a violent war of independence, the British empire thought USA to be a more 'natural' successor to the empire than say Russia.

Even USA as the sole superpower after Cold War, it started propping up China as its potential successor if chips fall down and we started seeing the G2 scenarios evolved in past decade.

If we the world map we can see two set of groupings, more like compatible civilizations. In the east we have Russia, China, India and Japan. In the west we have USA, Europe, Britain and Canada. The Brazils of South America are same as the Austraila/Newzealand of Asia; at best They are representatives of outside block in the core pool. Canada is to west as Russia as to east; a vast territory with lot of natural resources but very small local populations. 

The melting pot is the ME region and Africa. The colonial hangover (of last two empires - British & USA) is currently holding them in Western control, while their real value proposition is for East. West is trying to harass and delay raise of East by holding on to the two USP's of ME, namely Oil and Islam. 

Given this background, it is not only natural but also desirable that the Asian group makes much needed compromises in their internal dynamics before one of them can take the baton from the west as the next empire. 

The key sore points in this equation are Pakistan, Indo-China border issues, Energy security, China-Japan and Japan-Russia border issues etc., None of the Asian group powers can become the next empire without solving these issues. 

Can China trust India to be a natural successor for it when the time comes? Will China benefit to have India as its successor empire than say Turkey?

What can be done to this end? Following are some suggestions.

- China cuts its relationships with Pakistan and supports India's pursuit to take over PoK. China also gives up its claims on Aksai-Chin. This will severe the Islamic corridor between Pakistan & Xinjiang and distance China from Islamic nuicense.

- Russia and China extend their proposed Oil/Gas pipeline network into Burma/Inda thru Yunnan province. This will be connected to India's own Oil/Gas grid in North-East India.

- India develops a undersea Oil/Gas pipeline from Iran and connects it to the Russia-China grid. 

- This will setup a Oil/Gas network stretching from Iran-India-China-Russia-Japan. This will connect two major suppliers with three major customers. At current rates this is a $500-600B energy grid completely liberating Asia from Western energy politics. India & China can balance each other supply routes by controlling their grids.

- Once cut from their Asian markets the ME islam can be turned to focus on their western frontiers like they did during crusades. Europe & USA will be natural places for Islamist hordes to enjoy the fruits of civilization.

- This will force West to use Pakistan as the spoiler of Asian game. But surrounded by the entire Asian group on all four sides Pakistan will not last more than a week and cease to exist as an western agent.

This will move the frontiers of Asian group to Africa and Australia for the next round of geopolitics.

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Tuesday, May 27, 2014

A quick analysis of Modi Cabinet!

I am grouping the ministers into different groups

Group 1: Seniors, long-time party loyalists., People I wish didn't get into the cabinet, because I think this is a Modi Sarkar and not BJP Sarkar.
1. Rajnath Singh: Home Affairs
2. Arun Jaitley: Defence, Finance, Corporate Affairs
3. M Venkaiah Naidu: Urban Development, Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, Parliamentary Affairs
4. DV Sadananda Gowda: Railways
5. Dr. Najma A. Heptulla: Minority Affairs
6. Prakash Javadekar-Information and Broadcasting (Independent Charge)

Group 2: The Dynamites (People who can push Hindutva agenda unapologetically if needed)
1. Uma Bharati: Water Resmy ces, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation

Group 3: The Get'it done'ers (Task Masters).. My Dream Team... I want these types in key areas
1. Nitin Gadkari: Road Transport and Highways, Shipping
2. Ravi Shankar Prasad: Communications and Information Technology, Law and Justice
3. Gopinathrao Munde: Rural Development, Panchayati Raj, Drinking Water and Sanitation

Group 4: The Dynamic lot. My Dream Team... The new comers I love... I want the whole cabinet is filled with these
4. Smriti Zubin Irani: Human Resmy ce Development
5. Harsh Vardhan: Health and Family Welfare
6. Piyush Goyal-Power (Independent Charge),Coal (Independent Charge),New and Renewable Energy (Independent Charge)
7. Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman- Commerce and Industry (Independent Charge), Finance, Corporate Affairs
8. General V.K. Singh - Development of North Eastern Region (Independent Charge), External Affairs, Overseas Indian Affairs

Group 5: Party poopers (in my highly biased opinion based on Paid Media reports. My sincere apologies to them). I wish they are pushed aside completely.
1. Sushma Swaraj: External Affairs
2. Maneka Sanjay Gandhi: Women and Child Development
3. Ananth Kumar: Chemicals and Fertilizers

Group 6: I don't know them'ers. So I presume (again with bias) they are so..so
1. Kalraj Mishra: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
2. Harsimrat Kaur Badal: Food Processing Industries
3. Jual Oram: Tribal Affairs
4. Radha Mohan Singh: Agriculture
5. Narendra Singh Tomar: Mines, Steel, Labmy  and Employment
6. Dharmendra Pradhan: Petroleum and Natural Gas (Independent Charge)
7. Shri Inderjit Singh Rao- Planning (Independent Charge), Statistics and Programme Implementation (Independent Charge), ]Defence
8. Shri Santosh Kumar Gangwar- Textiles (Independent Charge), Parliamentary Affairs, Water Resmy ces, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation
9. Shri Shripad Yesso Naik- Culture (Independent Charge), Tmy ism (Independent Charge)
10. Shri Dharmendra Pradhan - Petroleum and Natural Gas (Independent Charge)
11. Shri Sarbananda Sonowal - Skill Development, Entrepreneurship, Youth Affairs and Sports (Independent Charge)
12. Dr. Jitendra Singh - Science and Technology (Independent Charge), Earth Sciences (Independent Charge), Prime Minister Office, Personnel, Public Grievances & Pensions, Department of Atomic Energy, Department of Space
13. Shri G.M. Siddeshwara - Civil Aviation
14. Shri Manoj Sinha - Railways
15. Shri Nihalchand- Chemicals and Fertilizers
16. Shri Upendra Kushwaha - Rural Development, Panchayati Raj, Drinking Water and Sanitation
17. Shri Radhakrishnan P - Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises
18. Shri Kiren Rijiju - Home Affairs
19. Shri Krishan Pal - Road Transport and Highways, Shipping
20. Dr. Sanjeev Kumar Balyan - Agriculture, Food Processing Industries
21. Shri Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava - Tribal Affairs
22. Shri Raosaheb Dadarao Danve - Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution
23. Shri Vishnu Deo Sai - Mines, Steel, Labmy  and Employment
24. Shri Sudarshan Bhagat - Social Justice and Empowerment

Group 7: I miss them What happened???
1. Amit Shah
2. Meenakshi Lekhi
3. Nalin Kohli
4. Shaina NC
5. AsmaKhan Pathan etc.,

Group 8: My favorite oldies
1. Subbu Swamy
2. Arun Shmy ie
3. MJ Akbar??
4. Rajiv Malhotra
5. Baba Ramdev
6. Sri Sri Ravi Sankar....


Adding Modi (he himself is == to 10 cabinet ministers; so the  total Cabinet strength is 50 ), I got 20/50 ministers in my  Dream Team (Groups 3&4 Plus Modi). About 6/50 are BJP Seniors and 24/50 are I-don’t-know them types. Assuming 50% of Group-6 passed Modi's selection process my  Dream team is about 30/50 that is 60% of cabinet.

The Group 1 is important for they ensure the party BJP and its core is in firm control of the political dispensation. These people went thru many ups and downs with the party and developed a long institutional memory. Combined with Group 2 on certain initiatives they can make the yindootva-fundamentalists very happy.

The Group 2 is very much needed for the REAL freedom of Bharat from the triple colonization (Islamic, Christian & Secular). I wish I have two more people in this group but I hope a couple from Group 1 will provide issue-based support to Group 2. This is the group that will make sure that Ram Mandir, A370, UCC etc are not forgotten in my  pursuit of creating wealth, lots of it. Who knows, in right circumstances Group-5 can become martyrs for the right causes.

As I can see majority of Group 6 are from coalition partners, which I need to respect because I want the BJP alliance to do well throughout the country. So I need to live with this 10/50 (the other 50% qualified into my  Dream Team) that 20% of coalition Dharma.

I couldn't find more than 3-4/50 people in Group 5 (Once again this is my highly biased and prejudiced opinion reading the Paid Media. My advanced apologies to them). So this is less than 10% of the cabinet strength. This kind of people can cause harm only when the "Silent Majority" is Secular. Given the fact that I have my  dream team in majority, they will behave like good citizens.

This brings us to the missing names!

I hope Group 7 has been given much larger tasks than I can imagine, hence are kept out of this cabinet.

Personally I hope my favorite Amit Shah joins the team officially. He is the ideal candidate for defense ministry given the challenge-quadrant: (1) External Threats, (2) Force Development, (3) >$100B procurement in next 5 yrs and (4) building MIC from bottom up.

I am a personal fan of many of Group-8 candidates. But I think they, with lots of respect to them, will be failures in a cabinet setting. I think they should be used to educate, convince and change the national perspectives on some larger-than-one-administration issues such as (sic) Secularism, UCC, A370, calling my  nation as Bharat instead of slavish-India etc.,

Overall I will give this cabinet 8/10 marks.


Tuesday, April 8, 2014

The Roadmap

1.       Food Security
If there is one sad story about India, it must be the nation’s failure to achieve food security. Food security doesn’t end with a nation’s ability to produce food grains but its ability to ensure all its citizens can afford and access those food grains and are free from hunger and malnutrition. India’s gross food grain production [1] alone can ensure that all 1.4 billion Indians can get an average food intake of 2000 calories. Add this to fruits, vegetables, dairy and meat products and the nation should have a highly nutritious food security.

While it is true that India achieved food-grain self-sufficiency, majority of Indians are still far from free from hunger and malnutrition. No, it not the fault of the geography nor the fault of primitive farming techniques or the illiterate farmers. Even with all those inefficiencies India achieved self-sufficiency in food grain production; but it is the fault of successive governments and the administrative structures that failed to achieve food security for all Indians. Fortunately governance and administration is much easier problems to solve than adding arable land or significantly improving crop yields in short duration. In the first phase, the next government should introduce world-class food-product supply-chain technologies and processes in food collection, storage, processing, marketing and supply to India. Key aspect of this strategy is to establish the supply-chain infrastructure that makes entire India into one single food-market thus removing regional price imbalances. This will help both producers and consumers while significantly reducing wastage of perishable goods.

Another aspect of Indian agro-sector is that almost in every crop type the average yield achieved in India is significantly lower than the best in the world yield rates[2]. Just by improving the yield to half of world record levels, India can more than double it’s agro-output or reduce its ecological footprint for its food security by nearly half. By achieving these yield levels, India can save nearly 500,000 Sq.KM arable area, nearly the size of Ukraine, for future generations. This in turn will make India’s water, eco-system security a reality. In the second phase the government should identify achievable yield-goals for each crop variety and build necessary research, industrial, training facilities to achieve those goals.

In the third phase the government can identify and convert excess arable-land to produce bio-energy, renewable timber thus transforming agriculture into next generation renewable industry. These measures will bring the inflation down, introduce much needed technological and process efficiencies into this sector and most importantly facilitate smooth movement of human resources into industrial sector.

2.       Energy Security
Second problem area for India’s future growth is energy security. As far back as 1950s, Indian visionaries such as Dr. Homi Bhabha realized this challenge when they formulated three-stage nuclear programme. Indian policy makers knew all along that they will have to rely on foreign energy suppliers if they follow the same technologies of energy rich nations. Yet they consistently failed to dedicate enough national resources in pursuing an independent and sustainable energy roadmap.

In order to improve its economy, industry and HDI India will need significant amount of energy resources. If India with its $1900B GDP is currently importing energy resources worth ~$100B, we can only imagine the energy requirements as India’s GDP grows to say $20T economy by 2030. It is not simply a question of affordability of these energy resources for India, but the real question is availability and sustainability of these energy sources. There is no glory in becoming a $20T economy if that cannot be sustained for a long time.

This is where India needs to set its national vision very clear and ensure that this vision is realized. India need to identify various energy sources that it can domestically develop and sustain to meet 90% of its requirements by 2030. There is no point running behind the strategies and technologies of another nation that were built on that nation’s, not India’s, strengths. India need to pursue those energy sources and technologies that it can use to achieve self-reliance in addition to create national wealth by exporting them to other energy starving nations.

India should identify various non-crude based energy sources and focus its research and development capabilities in those areas to make them technically and economically viable solutions; be it is nuclear or solar or hydrogen based energy economy. A mix of technologies can fulfil India’s energy needs, even at developed economy levels, in a sustainable manner. For example a mix of grid-connected solar energy for domestic use, nuclear and coal power for industrial and infrastructure usage and hydro-electricity to support demand peaks and hydrogen & bio-fuel based automotive industry can significantly reduce India’s dependency on imported energy in addition to creating technologies  that can generate valuable export opportunities.

3.       Infrastructure
Key aspects to development of industrial infrastructure are access to capital, technology and human resources.

As explained before Indians will save nearly $4T in next five years and majority of that can be made available for development of industrial infrastructure by using a mix of policies and financial instruments. For example GOI (with the help of RBI) can reduce the interest rates on other savings and fixed deposits to say 5% APR (slightly lower than inflation rate) while starting a 10 year infrastructure bond that yields say 8% APR (This can be inflation adjusted with no maximum limit). Assuming GOI can attract 25% of national savings into such Infra bonds, it can generate $1T of capital for Infrastructure development. Assuming an 8% GDP growth and 10% tax revenues, GOI can make a positive return on these investments even after paying 8% interest.

Such a low yield on savings and fixed deposits will reduce interest rates banks charge for industrial/business loans thus making this sector competitive in international markets. It is important to understand that western financial markets are designed to get maximum return for their local investors and add significant premiums on FDIs using various nomenclature to complicate the risk profile of destination country. That is how even unrelated things like HDI, perception of religious freedom also included in such rating calculations. By channeling Indian savings to Indian financial & industrial sectors the profits can also be kept within India.

The second aspect is access to Technology. There is no easy way for India on this except innovation, strategic acquisitions and trial and error. The good news is that India should be able to acquire all technologies that it needs to develop the basic industrial infrastructure thru outright technology transfer purchases and strategic acquisitions. The technology requirements for India of 2025-2050 must come from indigenous innovation and international partnerships. The national leadership must prepare necessary policy framework for each of these different goals and allocate necessary resources, financial as well as human resources.

That brings us to the third aspect of national infrastructure that is a national pool of quality human resources. As a mix of first (Agriculture) and second (Industrial) wave economy, India has much to do in this area. A previous analysis [3] estimated that India will have to spend nearly $2T to train and transform majority of its existing agricultural labor force into manufacturing sector. This can be planned in the first phase (2014-2025) while the nation builds the necessary infrastructure to build the national human resource pool that are educated, trained to innovate and enterprise. A new education system, different from the educational paradigm India followed so far, with emphasis on critical thinking and innovation is a must to build the necessary human resource pool of next century. It is this human resource pool that will lead and implement the 2nd and 3rd phases of food and energy security roadmap.

4.       Civic Infrastructure
Civic infrastructure is the realm where Indians would enjoy the fruits of their hard work in the form of roads, housing, water supply, electricity, recreation, civic amenities and hospitals etc. This is the structure that supports the Indian nation to provide and achieve highest levels of Human Development Indicators. The necessary technology, industry and human resources are already available in India as we can see in the some of the modern communities build in various cities. The missing link is a planned and standardized implementation of development plans. An effective and efficient government can remove the lethargy in the administrative system and build a sound civic infrastructure throughout India with 10 years.

The government has to not only provide this multi-dimensional infrastructure but also ensure that all these places of social interaction remain secure for all Indians. This is where a key aspect of governance, Internal Security, comes into picture. India has no dearth of external challenges. Unfortunately the successive Congress governments allowed these external challenges creep into internal society in the form of various interest groups. Over years these interest groups developed their own mafia-like networks stoking communal, social and economic tensions costing the nation enormously.

The final aspect of Civic infrastructure is rule of law and delivery of justice. There should be clarity and reassurance to all Indians that the law will treat all Indians same irrespective of their personal networks and ideologies. The next government must bring in a Uniform Civil Code so there is no confusion between Indians on how their social interactions should be conducted and will be viewed by rule of law. The second part of this governance aspect is delivery of justice. Over decades delivery of justice became a joke with even simplest civil cases taking decades and criminal cases taking so long that many complete their punishment as under-trials. The next government must bring in necessary structures and resources such that any (civil or criminal) case is resolved within one year, with very few exceptions in extreme cases.

5.       Foreign Policy
The founding fathers of independent India made the first misstep in our foreign policy by denying the millennia old existence and accumulated energy of Bharatiya civilization and limiting its imagination to a very constrained western-idea of India. This is like putting an elephant in a rat-cage and it made both India and its observers very imbalanced over decades. Even with all its poverty, illiteracy, abysmal infrastructure and heavily constrained military, India is ranked fourth in National Power Index by International Futures Model [4]. Yet neither Indian society nor the industry or the government conduct themselves in a manner suitable to its national power. The elephant doesn’t know its potential and is behaving like a rat running on a pointless running-wheel and the nations observing this are very scared of this running elephant.

The next political dispensation must re-educate the whole nation for what it truly is; a civilization that withstood 1400 years of double colonization and yet stood victorious and strong. India, as the latest transformation of that great civilization Bharat, has its natural destiny as world intellectual leader. This nation’s foreign policy must come this self-awareness. Such assertive foreign policy is not only necessary for Indians but in the best interests of the world. India cannot be a willing candidate for another round of overt/covert colonization with all its 1.2 billion population and economic potential for it will invite other world powers to compete for this crown jewel and may cause next world war.

Once India defines a foreign policy fit to its national posture many, other nations will follow India’s lead in becoming truly independent civilizations. That in itself will lead to a multi-polar world and a mutually respecting Vasudhaika Kutumbam.

6.       Ecological Security
A key aspect of national power that is often lost in translation its ecological security. This includes flora fauna in addition to quality of air, water resources and their sustenance. The nation cannot survive for long when the ecology around it is destroyed. A sound ecological system also reduces the in-direct economic costs of other economic pursuits of humanity.

Securing the ecology of a nation also includes protection and preservation of native and natural crops and their natural genetic evolution. While it is very tempting to encash a sudden opportunity that arises from a genetically modified seed/crop, as a nation we have a responsibility to our future generations to pass on the natural ecosystem.

India must develop an ecological blueprint that safeguards the national forests, animal species, crops, water resources and river systems etc and interconnect them in such a way that the animal and bird migrations are unhindered by human growth and development.

With a long-term vision, careful planning and meticulous execution India can set aside ~40 of its land area to have interconnected eco-system that acts as the natural incubator for human evolution, sustenance and more than anything happiness.

[1] India Food grain production estimates for 2012-13
[2] Agricultural Output in India in comparison with worlds most productive
[3] Cost of retraining and employing Agricultural labor force in manufacturing industry
[4] National Power Index

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

The Fight - 2014 Elections

At the core of this elections is the fight between the forces that lionize and facilitate Western Universalism (a.k.a Abrahamism) take over of India’s future and those forces that want to define Indian identity, ethos and economy firmly based on its native civilizational foundations.

Both sides of this battle have their own strengths & weaknesses. Neither of them can win this clash of ideas conclusively without absolute support of Indian nation and its human and natural resources as the scales are finally tipping in favor of India; hence this no holds barred fight for 2014 elections.

A very interesting point is that even though these elections are fought in a multiparty democratic setup, one cannot guarantee that this elections will ensure the survival of that very democracy in its classical sense. Based on who wins this election and what kind of mandate they get from Indian citizenry, the winners may be tempted to permanently alter this equation in their favor. One must thank the illiterate and poor Indians to keep the playing field open & fair for these opposing world-views thus far, giving the nationalists a fighting chance.

It is these underlying long-term civilizational currents that are manifesting into various key issues raised in this election.

1. Economy
For the first 45 years since its transfer of power from colonial powers, India treaded a Socialistic economic path. Then in 1990s it changed its economic direction to Market economy. While the first model ensured that India remained poor, the second model made its rich get richer. The proof of this reality lies in UPA governments’ near back-breaking economic-security packages doled out to the disadvantaged sections in order to ensure the social pressure wouldn't blow the lid.

Given the fact that the winning political dispensation will determine how to channel more than $1T tax revenues directly and over >$4T national savings indirectly (thru economic policy) in next five years, it will determine who the real beneficiaries are and to what civilizational ends.

The incumbent Congress party is hell bent on continuing on its current path for it will give the selected elite the freedom to exploit the national wealth while ensuring the majority is securely under its (kleptocratic) control thru various family-named dole programs. This alliance, if comes to power, will make India's economic environment as an (controlled) extension of western economic system so its political network can benefit disproportionately and make sure that the hold over Indian resource flow by international business networks remains unchallenged.

The main opposition party, BJP, wants to change this model to a more inclusive economic model. If its promises are fulfilled, it will transform the national resources into an economic infrastructure that can be tapped by all Indians alike. This is meant to give Indians the much needed incentive to innovate and enterprise; a paradigm that this civilization set aside as part of its war-constitution it put in place almost 1400 years ago to fight multiple waves of Abrahamic invasions. If this alliance comes to power, we can expect establishment of & state-support for native business networks that not only ensure a secured access of resources to Indians but also bring them into India’s national power spectrum.

Then there is the manufactured Anarchic Agents Party in the guise of Aam Admi Party. Based on available reports, this party is led by NGO owners who are propped, promoted (using various awards) & funded by various western organizations and intelligence agencies. There is no defined economic policy or vision for this party for now, except disturbing any and every idea that is not in western interests (hence Anarchic Agents) by manufacturing public dissidence as its member NGOs have done in Kudankulam, Narmada River Project etc.,

2. Corruption/Governance
This became the second most important issue in this elections primarily for two reasons.

First is the blatant and universal nature of corruption & mis-governance demonstrated by two successive UPA administrations leading to absolute disillusionment & electoral anger in Indian public.

Second is availability & demonstration of corruption free & efficient governance offered by Modi administration in the state of Gujarat during the same period.

These two visibly opposing reasons gave the Indian citizens of other states a clear picture of not only what they have been missing all these years but also a readily available and proven solution for them to get a corruption free good governance.

The emergence of AAP party must be seen in this background. This party is nothing but a manufactured mask of an alliance of internal & external powers that want to stop/deny Indian majority from directly electing Modi's BJP against the corrupt Congress-system. This is because a Modi victory is not just a political defeat for Congress but loss of hold on larger civilizational resources for these international trade networks.

AAP’s charade against corruption and its proposed solution of anarchy falls flat upon close analysis because the Modi government has already proven that good governance is a leadership issue and not a structural issue as AAP. You don't have to bulldoze your entire house to vacate a bully tenant.

3. Secularism
Secularism is yet another experiment of Indian society that failed to prove any tangible value so far. The cruel joke it played on India is that even after 40 years of its inclusion in constitution of India by an emergency government without any due process, no one in India knows for sure what it means and what value it meant to provide to its stakeholders.

There are three angles to this Secularism question in the context of this election.

The first dimension of Secularism is religious dimension and it influence on definition and vision of India’s identity. Secularism gives equal say to all three major systems Hinduism, Christianity and Islam in defining and pursuing Indian Interests. This means Indian Christians with their minuscule 3% population and Indian Muslims with their 15% population will get equal vote in defining Indian Interests same as the Hindus that make 80% of the nation. Another aspect of this equation is the disproportional international power links Christianity and Islam bring in to bear upon India. This is where definition of Indian Interests gets hijacked by Christian and Islamic interests leaving 80% of Indians high and dry in protecting their native civilization.

The second dimension is economic & civic infrastructure. Secularism, by definition, gives into the sway of more organized and disruptive faith systems. One type of these forces is what we have seen in Kudankulam protests. This anti-nuclear agitation was aimed at partnerships with Russia (alone), were majorly funded by Western Christian organizations and were conducted by internal Evangelical organizations. Another type of these forces is what India has seen in JK terror attacks and 11/26 Mumbai attacks. In both cases the national economic and civic infrastructure was held hostage by religiously motivated group while secularism failed to resolve these challenges in the national interests.

The third aspect of secular debate is Law and Order. Secularism does not have any well-defined role and mandate when it comes to law and order issues involving religiously motivated groups. This causes a paradox for Indian minorities as their religious demands and social vision often contradict with that of Hindu majority leading to distortions in national posture and power projection. Recent episode of an Indian diplomat getting arrested on false charges and cavity searched in the United States is an example how the internal secular dynamics can be exploited by external powers. The witch hunt for Saffron terror and meddling of NIA investigations into terror attacks by Indian Mujaheddin amply demonstrated how the state Law & Order machinery is intentionally subverted to keep the facade of secularism by various political parties and governments. The proposed Communal Violence Bill takes this aberration to the extreme by protecting the minorities irrespective of cause and perpetrator of the crime, thus making the Law and Order apparatus subservient to religious identity of the people involved in the issue.

On one side of this debate stands BJP. This party recognizes the incorrect application of Abrahamic social issues on Indian society and wants to remove this aberration. This party promises to provide equal socio-economic opportunities to all Indians with its ‘equal opportunities for all, appeasement to none’ position. This political stand automatically removes the external handles (and their influence) on India’s internal social, economic and religious debates.

Congress & its allies on the other hand demand that the nation must give special treatment to followers of Abrahamic faith even at the cost of social, economic, national security and in some cases even democratic implications to the entire nation. This means Indian interests will be permanently mortgaged to Abrahamic faith systems whose core power system is outside Indian control/influence. This effectively means indirect colonization of India using Secularism for/by Abrahamic faiths.


Thus the battle lines are drawn. On one side stands the nationalist forces led by BJP’s Narendra Modi that want to complete India’s struggle for Independence from double-colonization in social, economic and intellectual spheres and propel it to its natural leadership position on world stage. On the other side stands the multitude of political parties that unite in their opposition to BJP and their tacit support for next round of colonization by Abrahamic forces.

Both sides need unequivocal support from Indian public in implementing their respective agendas. Perhaps it is time for Indian electorate to choose wisely and decisively.

Next: The Roadmap

Sunday, March 30, 2014

The Prize - That is India!

The Prize

What is the future holding for the great nation of India? Why so much competition to win the heart and mind of India by various internal political dispensations and external nations? What prize India holds in near future?

Since independence India has been consistently the ~10th largest (nominal) economy in the world. The efficiency/inefficiency of various governments pushed this position up or down by one or two positions but India on the whole maintained the pace.

But the winds are changing now and  India is at the cusp of a whole new world where it is at qualitative advantage to propel into the distinguished group of world powers. Let’s see what they are.

Look at the information presented below graphics to get the details. Following are the key trends:

·         Economy
At market exchange rates, India will achieve a per-capita income of $5000 by 2020 (mid-level economy) and propel to an advanced economy by 2040. In 2050, an average Indian will have higher per-capita income than a EU citizen or Saudi Citizen.

Indian economy will be bigger than EU economy by 2030 and by 2050 it will be more than 5 times that of EU economy

Indian economy will be 5 times that of Saudi Arabia economy by 2020. An average Indian, with all its 1.4 billion population, will be richer than a Saudi Arabian citizen by 2040.

·         Human Development Index (HDI)
Between 1975 and 2003 India has moved from a HDI score of 0.4 to 0.6 with 1.0 being the highest possible Human Development Index. India achieved this great feat while keeping the average per-capita Biocapacity consumed constant. In comparison China moved from a HDI of 0.5 to 0.75 but at the cost of double the bio-capacity, that is consuming nearly double the natural resources to achieve same amount of HDI improvement.

Continuing at this pace India can achieve a HDI of 0.8+ by 2025, thus making the quality of life of Indians at par with today’s western societies. If India can achieve this while maintaining its Biocapacity score that means Indian HDI is not only world-class but also sustainable. On the other hand as other nations push to improve their HDI at the cost of biocapacity then the western societies will be pressurized to control their biocapacity usage which may result in reduced HDIs in those societies.

·         Demographics
For the first time since Independence India achieved a favorable dependency ratio, number of dependents per working person, around 2005. In comparison China achieved this favorable demographic as early as 1980s, which helped that nation to propel ahead. 

Interestingly China’s dependency ratio optimized around 2010 and is trending –ve to reach unfavorable ratios by 2040. On the other hand India will continue to improve this ratio well in to 2030s and continue this favorable conditions much beyond 2050.

On the other hand all most all western nations will have an unfavorable dependency ratio during the same period making them face higher social costs and unfavorable national power equations.

·         National Power
The traditional national power measure is a function of a nation’s population, economy (GDP), military budget and Technology. With improved HDI and economic indicators combined with demographic dividend India is poised to grow its national power significantly in the upcoming decades. Studies show that India will cross European Union by 2030s and USA by 2050.


This brings us back to our key question - Why so much competition to win the heart and mind of India by various internal political dispensations and external nations?

The bright future opportunities described above holds a very valuable prize for the leadership dispensation of this nation. Whoever oversees this great transformation of India will not only define India’s future for next century but also for the world. 

If this transformation is controlled & managed by Western handlers then we can be sure that the once great Hindu civilization, that withstood centuries of Abrahamic onslaught, will permanently lose its unique identity and will melt into Western Universalism. 

On the other hand if by fate Hindu civilization can own this transformation then it can instead bring back the glorious epoch of Bharat when India was 30% of world GDP and Jagat Guru (teacher of the world) and lead the humanity towards Vasudhaika Kutumbam!

How does this great prize holds for the next administration?

Depending on what political dispensation at the helm, during 2014 and 2019, India is expected to grow at a steady pace of 7-8%.

  • This translates into anywhere between $190B to $279B annual tax revenues to the next government at a very conservative 10% tax revenues as percentage of GDP.
  • Over next 5 years India will spend >$120B towards capital investments in Military.
  • India will have national savings in excess of $4T over next five years.
  • Based on how much of these savings are tapped for Industry and Infrastructure, India can add at least $1T to its capital markets doubling its size in just 5 years without taking market growth into consideration. In addition that India can self-finance its infrastructure vision of investing $1T in next five years.

All this means the next political dispensation can decide how $1T capital is spent every year from 2014-2019. This itself creates immense political, economic and social clout for this political dispensation within India.

That is the prize of 2014 elections!

Friday, January 31, 2014

Dvārakā - A Historical City thru Eons

Dvārakā is a historical city in coast of Gujarat, India.

This historical city came into news when India's National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) discovered this historical city Gulf of Khambhat ~30-40 meters under water.

There are many references about this city in Hindu Epic Mahabharata and Bhagavata Purana both written by sage Krishna Dwaipayana Vyasa. Two of these references tell us how this great City was built & rebuilt.

The first story is about a king called Raivata in Bhagavata Purana.

There was a king called Raivata. Raivata built a great city called “Kusasthali” in the middle of ocean. This city went under ocean after some time and again came out when oceans receded. 
This Raivata had 100 sons and one daughter, Revati. He wanted to find a good groom for his daughter Revathi. In that search he and Revathi went all the way to Brahma’s world (Brahmaloka).
At that time Brahma was having a music program in his royal assembly. Raivata waited and approached Brahma after the program and requested Brahma to select a good groom for his daughter.
Brahma smiled at Reivata and told him that nearly 27 Mahayugas passed since they started their journey from Earth and none of his descendants are alive now.
Brahma told him that there is one Balarama living on earth now and would be a good candidate for Revati to marry. This Balarama is brother of Sri Krishna who built Dvārakā.

This brings us to the second reference of Dvārakā in Mahabharata.

After the death of Kamsa in the hands of Sri Krishna & Balarama, the Yadavas came under multiple invasions by Jarasamdha, King of Magadha & emperor of Bharat. To avoid this continuous state of war, Sri Krishna led migration of Yadavas to west coast of India and setup Anarta kingdom with Dvārakā as its capital in the middle of ocean.
This Dvārakā went under sea again after Mahabharata War.

Following is a scientific estimation of historical sea levels. The second graph shows historical sea levels from present times to 140,000 years in the past.

As we can see in this image, the sea levels were below 30-40m between ~7000 and ~75000 years before present indicating that the region of Dvārakā was above seal level in this period.

Since Kushasthali went below water after Raivataka, the earliest this could have happened was during the previous ocean level raise ~80,000 years ago.

Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/clisci100k.html#sea

This observation fits nicely with a new ground breaking research done by SriNilesh Nilkanth Oak -  When Did The Mahabharata War Happen?: The Mystery of Arundhati that dates Mahabharata war to be at 5561BC (~7500 Before Present)

Following the bread crumbs: 

This raises an interesting question. What about the 27 Mahayugas Brahma was talking about? 

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Saindhava of Delhi State Elections!

The great itihasa Mahabharata is called 'The Mind of India". No wonder it continues to offer clues, patterns and insight into the Socio-Political dynamics of India irrespective of what era the reader belongs to.

Latest Delhi elections reminded me a story in Mahabharata. This is the story of one Jayadradha and his boons. Delhi has a very high symbolic value in Indian politics. It being capital of the nation is only part of its value proposition. Its role in Indian history (irrespective of however much secularists want us to believe that India did not exist before 1947) is the real symbolic value in Indian psyche. That is why Delhi deserved a Padmavyuha by enemies of Modi. They have to choose a place where they can make him visit less or not at all (remember, Padmavyuha doesn't work against Arjuna). Once    the location of Padmavyuha is decided, all players came into positions as dictated by Destiny (of this nation)

Players of modern Padmavyuha -
Abhimanyu = Harshavardhan; Arjuna = Modi; Pandavas = D4; Saindhava = Kejriwal

Now that Saindhava has his day of fame, the real puzzle is to find how to solve him from the game? For this we need to go to his father and make sure that the father himself throws Saindhava's to dustbin of history and get self-destroyed in the process. 

That is why it is very important for Pandava side to keep the pressure on Saindhava and even use an apaddharmic eclipse if needed. By the way don't forget to use Pasupatha (social media?) to send Saindhava's head to his daddy's lap.

Dharmo Rakshati Rakshita: