Thursday, July 31, 2014

Geopolitics V2.0

Every empire must end. But the sun setting empire can, and often does, select who will be its successor. We could see this throughout the history.

It is said that Britain identified USA as its successor empire after WW1 and passed on the baton to USA after WW2. Eventhough USA was once a British colony and fought a violent war of independence, the British empire thought USA to be a more 'natural' successor to the empire than say Russia.

Even USA as the sole superpower after Cold War, it started propping up China as its potential successor if chips fall down and we started seeing the G2 scenarios evolved in past decade.

If we the world map we can see two set of groupings, more like compatible civilizations. In the east we have Russia, China, India and Japan. In the west we have USA, Europe, Britain and Canada. The Brazils of South America are same as the Austraila/Newzealand of Asia; at best They are representatives of outside block in the core pool. Canada is to west as Russia as to east; a vast territory with lot of natural resources but very small local populations. 

The melting pot is the ME region and Africa. The colonial hangover (of last two empires - British & USA) is currently holding them in Western control, while their real value proposition is for East. West is trying to harass and delay raise of East by holding on to the two USP's of ME, namely Oil and Islam. 

Given this background, it is not only natural but also desirable that the Asian group makes much needed compromises in their internal dynamics before one of them can take the baton from the west as the next empire. 

The key sore points in this equation are Pakistan, Indo-China border issues, Energy security, China-Japan and Japan-Russia border issues etc., None of the Asian group powers can become the next empire without solving these issues. 

Can China trust India to be a natural successor for it when the time comes? Will China benefit to have India as its successor empire than say Turkey?

What can be done to this end? Following are some suggestions.

- China cuts its relationships with Pakistan and supports India's pursuit to take over PoK. China also gives up its claims on Aksai-Chin. This will severe the Islamic corridor between Pakistan & Xinjiang and distance China from Islamic nuicense.

- Russia and China extend their proposed Oil/Gas pipeline network into Burma/Inda thru Yunnan province. This will be connected to India's own Oil/Gas grid in North-East India.

- India develops a undersea Oil/Gas pipeline from Iran and connects it to the Russia-China grid. 

- This will setup a Oil/Gas network stretching from Iran-India-China-Russia-Japan. This will connect two major suppliers with three major customers. At current rates this is a $500-600B energy grid completely liberating Asia from Western energy politics. India & China can balance each other supply routes by controlling their grids.

- Once cut from their Asian markets the ME islam can be turned to focus on their western frontiers like they did during crusades. Europe & USA will be natural places for Islamist hordes to enjoy the fruits of civilization.

- This will force West to use Pakistan as the spoiler of Asian game. But surrounded by the entire Asian group on all four sides Pakistan will not last more than a week and cease to exist as an western agent.

This will move the frontiers of Asian group to Africa and Australia for the next round of geopolitics.

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