Pakistan after Taliban takeover - A prediction

From its inception, Pakistan society has been very clear on what it wanted to be and it has been so all along. It is the UK and USA that put a secular/democratic disguise on Pakistan to avoid international criticism for supporting such a fanatic state.

Anyways, Pakistan finally found a way to continue its journey towards its fate. The current internal and external players of Pakistan game are

External:

1. US - Wants to use Pakistan against India (and potentially Russia). Also can use Pakistan, when the shit hits the fan against the Arabian Muslim nation states.

2. China - Wants to use this against India. Also as a transit route to ME

3. UK - Uses this as a reason to advise and meddle in USA’s geopolitical affairs.

4. India - Wants to avoid this problem altogether if it can. Since it doesn’t have the will to solve this problem itself, India will continue to face interesting challenges (like they are doing now with self-inflicted saffron terror)

5. Afghanistan - Wishes to get away from its orbit

6. KSA - A potential cheap supply of Islamic slaves

Internal

1. Rabid Anglicized Pakistani Elites (RAPE) - Wants to keep their secular life styles while enjoying Islamic benefits

2. Terrorist State of Pakistani Army (TSPA) - Want to keep their secular disguise for access to western weapon systems because they know Islam alone cannot win modern wars in military domain (they have less control/understanding on other social aspects of statehood)

3. Average Pakistani (mango-Abduls) - Busy with their lives, but firmly believe Islam is the solution because Islam provides divine approval for their Asuric consciousness.

4. Taliban - The self-designated army of Allah. These are the leaders who want to rule Pakistan (and the world) on behalf of Allah.

Assuming Pakistan gets overruled by Taliban -

Response of Internal Players

• RAPEs – Few RAPEs will be prosecuted and publicly beheaded. Majority of the RAPEs will run away to US, UK or Dubai as per their personal and business connections. The number of RAPEs emigrated will be limited to <1 million (including families, children etc). These people will still keep Islam in their sleeves while enjoying protection from their host societies. There is a high possibility that they will start behaving like our WKKs in taming world’s response against Talibani state of Pakistan.

• TSPA – Except for few senior/mid-level officers, who migrate outside due to their better economic connections there, all of TSPA will accept Taliban rule and become part of their militia. Even then, there is a high possibility that this militia will be managed in a feudalistic structure.

• Mango-Abduls –

a.       Sunnis – They will whole heartedly accept Taliban rule and Sharia

b.      Shias – Will accept Taliban rule and Sharia. If Iraq and other ME societies are any indication, there will not be any systematic persecution at the beginning. But as and when this happens, majority of them will knock at India’s doors instead of Irans.

c.       Others – Will accept Taliban and Sharia whole heartedly, but will get persecuted in a slow trickle.

d.      Cricket stadiums will be converted into weekly Sharia courts and will feed the asuric social needs for entertainment.

International challenges after Taliban take- over


Nuclear Weapons

o   USA & West will try to buy Paki nukes & Taliban might accept that deal. Assuming ~100 weapons, we can expect a $30-40 billion multi-year deal made with Taliban.

o   TSPA/Taliban will act more than smart and will keep a handful number of nukes hidden away. My gut feeling is that, they will limit it to 2-3 weapons.

o   There is a very high possibility that India will share majority of this financial burden. Western consultants will (even I can) come up with enough reasons why it is in India’s best interests to make this deal happen and India will agree

§  This will be sold as a chanikyan move by seculars, media and WKKs as a way to get some influence over Taliban/Paki behavior.

§  There is a possibility that India will be pressurized to get rid of its own nukes as a good will gesture. I have a strong feeling that India will not budge even under immense internal and external pressure. India already made its case that Indian nukes are against China threat.

o   China will try to cover its traces amidst this chaos. It will end up paying the west to avoid international embarrassment. It may also make a deal with TSPA/Taliban to keep some of the weapons in its control (against submitting them to the west) and Taliban will accept this deal, because they already have a couple kept away for emergency.

     Economic & Humanitarian help

o   Government tax revenues will be limited. So they will have to develop a less demanding economic model and Islamic mode of living can sustain this.  That doesn’t mean Taliban will be poor. They will get ample money from their nukes (explained below)

o   The west will continue to fund some humanitarian aid, which will take care of basic food problem, to a major extent. We will not see a major humanitarian crisis like in Africa just because the numbers are too high (>150 million) and mainly Indian WKKs (with enough western prompting) will not allow it. So India (for obvious reasons – who wants another 10 million immigrants?) might end-up feeding (directly or indirectly) most of Pakistanis.

Military Industrial Complex

o   The military industry will become similar to Iran situation. Will be able to produce heavy equipment but will not be technically advance.

o   There is a fair chance that some sections of TSPA will start black-water like security companies and sell their services to key GCC nations.

Response of External Players


China

o   In 10-20 years, Xinjiang will start showing the early signs of unrest.  China will try to suppress this in its natural way.  UK/USA will use this opportunity to hurt China & then we will start seeing a China nuke-flash point.

     India

o   J&K – If India moves smartly, there is a fair chance of regaining PoK. But will need to ensure that it is there for long haul (20-30 years). Initially China may oppose this, as its negotiations in nuke realm continue. Another factor that can influence China is how much importance and confidence it has on the possibility of transit route to ME. There is a very high chance that India will not be successful in this effort.

o   Indian Muslims – There is a fair chance that their faith in Talibani invincibility will increase. They may not make any overt move themselves, but there is a fair chance that we will see more political and material support to JK insurgency. Taliban movement (not Pakis) will sneak into India.

o   WKKs – They will use Taliban scare to maximize their position over dhimmi secular Hindu majority. This will succeed in the short term (10-15 years). There is a fair chance that it will lead to further raise in Congress System fortunes.

o   There is another parallel development that is very important to this scenario. Supreme court decision on extending caste based reservations to converted Dalits. If that happens, the face of Indian electorate will change dramatically. Right now we have IMs – 15%, Christians 10%, Hindus – 75%. After this decision it will be IMs – 15%, Christians 40%, Hindus 45%. This will heavily influence Indian response to Talibanized Pakistan in many realms. If this doesn’t happen, Talibanization of Pakistan will be in Indian interests as I wrote in 2010.

West

o   West will go unscarred from this development. It will absorb few tens of thousands of RAPEs who come with their bank accounts and political connections back home, which will come to use in future.

o   RAPEs will be made into a Pakistani equivalent of Hurriyat/Khalistanis for future  use.

Iran Conundrum – Thinking beyond the obvious

As the drum beats of war appear on the Iranian horizon is there exists an opportunity for India to steer the world community out of this disaster? How can it help the key players in realizing their true national potential?

Roots of mistrust

The root cause of this international issue is the historical civilizational clash between Judo-Christian west and Shia-Persian Iran with the Sunni-Arab GCC trying to benefit from this quarrel. In its effort to be more Islamic than Sunnis, Iran made an unnecessary enemy out of the regional military power - Israel (and by association the sole super power USA).

In their pursuit of hegemony, all these players are forgetting the fundamental truth – A civilization’s greatness lies in its capacity to survive against toughest odds and not in its capacity to destroy others.

Iran - By proclaiming to ‘erase Israel out of the map’, the Iranian leadership showed its lack of wisdom fitting to the great civilization it represents. It is trying to hide this irrationality under the (perceived) protection of nuclear weapons. What Iranian leadership fails to understand in this process is that the other irrational states that it wants to emulate are artificial states created by world powers for a specific purpose and have no freedom on their own to use that nuclear blackmail beyond the intended purpose. By trying to follow the footsteps of North Korea and Pakistan Iranian leadership is not only diminishing its stature but also insulting the great civilization it represents.

Israel - The Jewish civilization has endured much suffering for thousands of years in the hands of almost all world powers except India (and China). They toiled hard to build the modern nation-state of Israel and they have a right to exist as a proud nation. While they have a right to secure their national interests, it cannot be achieved at the destruction of other nations and societies. They should respect the sovereignty and national-pride of other societies as much as they do theirs.

All other stakeholders in this game, be it USA/EU/GCC or PRC/Russia, are there to protect their self-interests and extend their power and influence at the cost of others.

Indian interests

While India’s economic interests are closely associated with the GCC, its geopolitical interests are tied with Iran. On one side there are 6 million Indians living in the GCC region earning ~$20B foreign exchange annually. In addition to this, India imports nearly 65% of its $90+ billion energy security from the gulf region every year alone. On the other side, Iran is key to India’s geopolitical interests especially in Afghanistan in addition to being a key pillar in India’s energy security (Iran supplies 11% of Indian energy requirements).

Any geopolitical misstep in Afghanistan will have serious repercussions to Indian internal and external security. In addition to this India’s actions are closely observed by each and every stakeholder of this game as it will be a sign of geopolitical maturity that is expected of India to match its growing economic foot print.

Problem Scenario
National Sovereignty – This is the paramount of Iran’s national interests. Israel and GCC wants to reduce this by weakening Iran and breach into its territorial integrity. USA/EU (NATO) group want to cut Iran to size so it cannot challenge their hegemony. Russia/PRC group (SCO) wants to protect Iran’s sovereignty so it can be their representative in the strategic West Asian region.


Nuclear Security – This is Iran’s strategy to achieve its first objective. None of the other players want Iran to hide under the nuclear umbrella as they are afraid of the potential harm Iran cause under this protection. The world has learned enough lessons from the nuclear blackmail by Pakistan and North Korea; the nuclear migraines of the world. Even Russia/PRC group cannot accept a new entrant to the coveted nuclear group.


Nuclear Energy – This is the pretext Iran is using to develop its nuclear military potential. While Israel, GCC and USA/EU question the necessity of energy surplus Iran to need nuclear energy, they cannot deny this right of Iran under existing international laws. The USA/EU group might be interested to support Iran on this cause under ‘right’ circumstances. The Russia/PRC group wholeheartedly supports Iran’s right to harness nuclear energy for its economic potential.


Economy – This is a key ingredient for Iran’s long-term success. Even though Israel and GCC might want to curtain Iran’s economic progress on one or other pretext so it will not become too strong to threaten their geopolitical interests, Iran can win the support of both the power groups USA/EU and Russia/PRC if Iran compromises on key issues.

India’s value proposition

India has civilizational relationships with Iran going back to its pre-Islamic history and it always kept this relationship mutually beneficial. India is the only civilization that did not prosecute Israelis.

India also has developed an indigenous nuclear wherewithal against the unfair international sanctions. Its nuclear umbrella covers all of West Asia and its BMD capability is second to none. India has demonstrated its commitment to WMD non-proliferation unlike few world powers that are trying to intimidate Iran.

India also has time-tested economic, military and geo-political partnerships on both sides of the table.  Its national interests are integrated with the stability and success of all the parties involved in this crisis. So the solutions proposed and underwritten by India will benefit all the parties immensely.

Possible Indian Solution
Iran proclaims ‘Israel’s right to exist’ – Quran claims that Judaism and Christianity as the previous incarnations of itself. So it should be very easy for Iranian leadership to accept this fundamental reality of Israel.

The world community is already helping the Palestinian cause by giving it UN membership. Iran will work with Israel and the international community to make the Palestine dream a reality.

Provide Nuclear Umbrella to Iran – India will provide nuclear umbrella to Iran by signing a friendship treaty with Iran. Any WMD attack on Iranian territory will be considered as an attack on Indian soil and Indian nuclear doctrine will kick in. India will not transfer/deploy any nuclear weapons or delivery mechanisms on Iranian soil as Indian missiles can cover all potential Iranian threats.

Iran voluntarily gives up its pursuit of nuclear weapons and destroys its weaponization capacity, if any. This should satisfy Israel's national security concerns, permanently. 

Iran will invite and allow complete oversight of its nuclear establishments by IAEA. Iran can buy civil-nuclear technology from anyone as long as they are under IAEA guidelines.


USA/EU and Russia/PRC groups might have reservations on the other side providing the same nuclear umbrella to Iran, where as both groups might find it acceptable for India to provide the same as a neutral player.

Provide BMD coverage to Iran – India will provide BMD coverage to key Iranian civilian and economic centers so they are protected from potential nuclear first strike from its adversaries.

A stable and secure world

By accepting India’s mediation and help Iran will survive as one nation from this self-inflicted security conundrum. If its value proposition to world humanity is that valuable, Iran will be able to achieve its national goals in a peaceful manner. Iran’s current identity that is pushing it into this abyss is hardly few hundred years old whereas its existence is thousands of years. Hope Its leadership learns the lessons Saddam Husain and Mummed Gadhafi failed to learn before it is too late.

By solving the Iran-Israeli problem, India would be offering a new paradigm for world stability where the strong and powerful nuclear states (USA, Russia, China and India) can help smaller nations come out of their mutual differences and security anxieties.